America must prepare for war with China over Taiwan

Massive china investment in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) may show that China is preparing to fundamentally change the status quo and preparing for a possible war with the United States over Taiwan. To deter China, the United States must rapidly increase its forces in the Pacific, continue to strengthen military alliances in the region to ensure access to bases in times of conflict, and accelerate deliveries of military equipment purchased from Taiwan.

Taiwan is of vital geopolitical importance to the United States. Its thriving democracy is one of the freest societies on the planet. As the admiral of the United States Navy of World War II, Ernest King, Taiwan is the “cork in the bottle” of Japan. Whoever controls Taiwan will control the maritime lifelines of Japan and the Republic of Korea. Chinese control of Taiwan will give it enormous influence over both Japan and Korea, fundamentally altering the strategic calculus in East Asia and giving China its long-awaited opportunity to finnish both countries.

Perhaps most importantly, Taiwan is the center for advanced semiconductor production; the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) boasts of having the most advanced foundry in the world. Chinese control of TSMC would provide it with a huge economic benefit and make the world dependent on an authoritarian regime for advanced semiconductors, and all that that would mean for the integrity of supply chains. Advanced semiconductors are the oil of the digital age. The United States must not allow an authoritarian regime determined to supplant the United States to seize these vital production facilities.

Time is not on our side. Taiwanese Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-Cheng testified ahead of its Congress on October 6 that, “By 2025, China will take cost attrition to its lowest level. It has the capacity now, but it will not start a war easily, having to take many other things into consideration. ” As Chiu asserts, China probably already believes that it has the ability to seize Taiwan.

China’s calculation of the use of force against Taiwan is complex and involves, but is not limited to, internal stability, developments in Taiwan, and military dynamics. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has created a popular nationalist narrative that the great rejuvenation of the Chinese people will be achieved through unification with Taiwan. Chinese President Xi Jinping has focused on the annexation of Taiwan. Probably achieve an unprecedented achievement third five-year term as chairman during the 2022 Fall Party Congress, allowing him internal political freedom to use force to achieve his goal of unification.

Xi will strive to relieve tensions in Sino-US relations to ensure a successful Winter Olympics in Beijing in early 2022 and through his selection as party chief again in the fall of 2022. Once his position is secured, Xi will increase the pressure on Taiwan before the presidency of Taiwan. elections in early 2024, leaving 2023 as a potentially dangerous year.

Beijing does not want Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, to be replaced in early 2024 by her vice president, Lai Qing-te. Lai is a popular politician who is deeply committed to human rights and the sovereignty and nationality of Taiwan. The prospect of his successor Tsai would undoubtedly cause Beijing to accelerate its efforts to take Taiwan.

Taiwan has been trying to transform itself into a “prickly porcupine” with the indigenous production of asymmetric weapons, as well as the purchase of new weapons. Systems Made in the USA. Under the announced arms sales agreements, many of these new US-made systems will not be active in Taiwan services until the mid-to-late 2020s, giving Beijing a window to attempt to take over Taiwan. in 2023 or 2024. Asymmetric systems can help change the Beijing calculus.

Taiwan needs to prepare its people for conflict, ensuring it has enough emergency supplies to survive a Chinese attack. Increased resources of the Taiwan Security Services are also urgently needed to gather intelligence on China, as well as to investigate and disrupt China’s efforts to develop and utilize fifth column forces in Taiwan.

Senior U.S. military officers have been surprised by the rapid transformation. The US military is trying to change to better fight the PLA in the Pacific, but face difficult logistical and force projection issues in a Taiwanese setting. The enormous size of the Pacific Ocean makes it vitally important that the United States have allied commitments to use bases in the region in times of conflict. Repairing relations with the Philippines in the post-Duterte era to gain access to Clark Air Force Base and Subic Bay could be beneficial. Ensuring the use of US bases in Japan in times of conflict is essential.

However, geographic space and logistical problems will make a timely US military response difficult; It may take the United States several weeks to have enough forces in the region to challenge the PLA in the battle space around Taiwan. Having more forces stationed in the Pacific can help speed up America’s response.

If China attacked Taiwan, they would likely use a massive cyber and electronic warfare attack to paralyze the island. They would combine this with missile attacks on key military and government centers to decapitate Taiwan’s leadership. The PLA would also use special forces assaults and air and sea landings to try to quickly defeat Taiwan. Prolonging effective Taiwanese resistance until US forces arrive should be a key objective of US security policy.

President BidenJoe BidenKyle Rittenhouse: No Money Traded For Tucker Carlson Interview, Overnight Energy & Environment Documentary Series – Biden To Release 50 Million Barrels Of Oil Reserve On The Money – Biden: America Should ‘Rest Easy’ On Prices MORE he has said on at least three occasions that the United States would defend Taiwan if it were attacked by China. His administration needs to explain to the American people why defending Taiwan is critical to the United States and deploy the necessary resources to deter China from attacking Taiwan.

Consequently, the United States needs to bolster our military forces in the region, work with Taiwan to quickly transform it into a true prickly porcupine that is resilient so that it can hold out for an extended period of time, and ensure that we have fierce allied commitments to allow it. USA to use bases in the territory of the allied countries. Time is not on our side. We must act now.

David Sauer is a retired senior CIA officer who served as station chief and deputy station chief in multiple overseas command positions in East Asia and South Asia.

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