The IDF’s annual assessment is first published Tuesday on Ynet and claims that in the past year, Israel has improved its national security status to a moderate degree.
The reason for the improvement is that the probability of a war started against Israel by its enemies remained low as it had been in the last two years, and the possibility of a sudden and unexpected escalation in the northern region that had been very high in the last years. it has also decreased slightly.
The chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi, last week summarized the assessments for 2022 in front of the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, and then it will lead to an in-depth cabinet discussion and review.
Israel’s moderate improvement in the state of national security is attributed to four factors:
Second, instability in the northern region has been reduced because Syria’s civil war has subsided, and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and supporting Russian President Vladimir Putin want to impose political stability and improve regime control in most of Syria to begin with. the restoration of the country. Russia and the Syrian regime are expected to derive considerable benefit from rebuilding Syria if they find someone to finance it, but right now, there is no such thing.
Even Saudi Arabia and other oil states in the Persian Gulf, which have recently improved their relations with Assad, are unwilling to participate in the restoration as long as the United States does not recognize the legitimacy of the regime and as long as Iran establishes military and economic power in Syria.
Israel also believes that in order to get rid of the Iranian presence near its border, or at least reduce it, some indirect measures must be taken to help Assad, so that he can extend his dominance over all of Syria. There is even a political effort to enlist Washington to help Assad rebuild his country, and for the United States to have a counterweight to Russian influence in the region.
Another reason for the increased stability in the northern region is that Hezbollah is politically and publicly entangled, and is held at least partially responsible for the multi-system crisis in which Lebanon is immersed with no foreseeable solution at the time.
The IDF estimates that in this period of time, Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah will not want to enter into confrontation with Israel, as it would only increase the suffering of the Lebanese people. So the obvious assumption is that the CDC in the northern region produces pretty good results and is worth improving.
The third reason for the improvement in our security situation is the approval of the state budget, which allows the IDF to accelerate Chief of Staff Kochavi’s plan for a structural and perceptual revolution in the IDF. The approval of the budget also allows the IDF to improve its current capacity for a possible attack in Iran if they decide to create a nuclear weapon in the short term.
The IDF’s estimate is that any action in Iran and Iraq will result in a confrontation on Israel’s northern border, and possibly even in Gaza and within Israel. Nor is it certain that a single one in Iran will finish the job. Therefore, thwarting Iranian nuclear weapons could also be quite a long and closed campaign, including ground movements and in-depth actions, without a predictable scheme, it will be a hit-and-run operation.
Most of these advanced technologies are Israeli developments that were delayed due to a lack of budget. And their approval finally allows them to be finished and operational. However, the IDF high command understands that a tight defense in Israel’s airspace and the border is impossible.
These were the main areas in which the security situation has improved. other areas, such as the Gaza Strip, have undergone significant changes for better or for worse.
The Gaza Strip, after Operation Guardian of the Walls in May, gained stability in exchange for economic benefits, but the situation remains delicate as in recent years. The current peace lasts longer than before thanks to funding from Qatar, Egypt’s involvement, and Israel’s goodwill to help with economic flexibilities, such as the approval of jobs in Israel for the people of Gaza.
But Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad are radical Islamic “resistance” organizations, and with Israel still rejecting some of their economic demands and negotiations for a prisoner exchange are stalled, the situation remains fragile.
The assessment of the IDF situation for 2022 has great uncertainty regarding the Iranian nuclear project. While Iran has slowed its uranium enrichment rate in recent months, it has built up a small amount of the critical mass necessary for uranium to become 60% enriched, but it has not enriched uranium to the level of a weapon, which is 90%.
They also did not accelerate the pace of installation of advanced centrifuges to enrich the IR-4.6 uranium, and announced that they will return to the negotiating table to discuss the nuclear agreement with the European Union, Russia and China. but not with the United States.
However, it is quite clear that the current Iranian regime led by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Ebrahim Raisi does not trust Western powers. And that makes Jerusalem, as well as Washington, wonder if the Iranians are really going to return to the nuclear deal, or if they are simply announcing that they will return to the negotiating table on November 29 to detain and pressure the president of the United States, Joe. Biden. Meet your demands. And in the meantime, they are moving towards the condition of a country that controls the production of enriched material, which is the core of the nuclear weapon.
The IDF and Israeli officials understand that there is no point in trying to influence the US diplomatic track with Iran. They are determined to bring Iran back to a nuclear deal through diplomacy and only in the way they see fit.
However, until the Iranian and American intentions become clear, the Jewish state will have a difficult time formulating a coherent strategy towards the Iranian nuclear threat, and it will be difficult for Israel to ask the United States to be on the same page and help deal with this. threat.