The Paris-based agency said it expected a further boost of 1.5 million barrels per day during November and December, and that the United States forecasts that it will provide more than that increase than any other country.
“The world oil market remains tight from all points of view, but relief from the rebound in prices could be on the horizon,” he said.
The agency said it had raised its US production forecast by 300,000 barrels per day for the fourth quarter and by 200,000 barrels per day on average in 2022, as high prices encourage higher production.
“That increase will go some way to meeting growing demand, still rebounding from the Covid crash in 2020,” the report said, adding that the refinery’s production also increased again, following maintenance through the fall.
The agency raised its global gasoline demand forecast for the final quarter of 2021 at 250,000 barrels per day after seeing end-user demand “on track to strengthen even further” for the rest of the year, as more countries open up to travel International, people become more mobile and Covid-19 vaccination campaigns resume.
“Recent data shows that personal car use rose above pre-Covid levels in many places, with interim data for the United States pointing to very strong gasoline in September and October,” he said in the report.
Despite high prices, gasoline demand in Europe also remained high, while consumption in China and India was more than 10% above 2019 levels, the IEA said.
“This comes despite record levels of EV sales in September and probably October as well.”
The agency kept its overall oil demand growth forecast of 5.5 million barrels per day for 2021 and 3.4 million barrels per day in 2022 unchanged from the September report. He said that the new Covid-19 outbreaks in Europe, weak industrial production and the prevailing high oil prices could affect any increase in demand.
– Julia Horowitz contributed to this story.