Iran and Hezbollah discuss Israel’s ‘war between wars’

Israel’s strategy for the past few years has been to avoid Iranian entrenchment in Syria. This has come to be known as the “campaign between wars” or “war between wars”. The concept is that Iran’s tentacles in Syria, which have grown rapidly in the last decade, may be severed one by one and Tehran may eventually stop growing again.
But there are questions about what the overall effect of this will be when the next conflict arises. While Israel has been conducting significant joint training with Western and local partners such as the US Air Force and the Marines, the next conflict is always looming. That conflict could be a multi-front war.

The Iranian media is aware of this and an interesting article this weekend in Tasnim News seems to reveal the extent of the Iranian discussion. While last week’s Iranian comments said Israel was doomed to destruction, and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah made similar threats, this is clearly propaganda.

The real discussion takes place behind the scenes and is about Israel’s strategy and tactics. Iran must weigh this issue before making any move in Syria, or even Iraq, where it has brought drones and ballistic missiles. Reports say that while Tehran may have known that its representatives conspired to attack the Iraqi prime minister, they were not behind the assassination attempt.

Additional reports, after the UAE Foreign Minister went to Syria for the first time in a decade, say an Iranian figure from the IRGC’s Quds Force may have been reprimanded for an attack on US forces in the Tanf garnish.

Iranian flag in the square of the Nishapur train station (credit: Wikimedia Commons)

THIS IS the situation Iran finds itself in this week. So what is the level of discussions?

“What is dangerous for the Zionists is that despite the military superiority of the Zionist regime under the constant support of the United States, the resistance was able to achieve historical and strategic victories that completely changed the equations of conflict in the region and created new equations. who rule the region, ”says Tasnim from Iran. “We are seeing this shift in the balance of power in the region, from Lebanon to Palestine and Iraq and Yemen.”

This means that Iran believes that it has gained a great advantage in recent years. This despite the “maximum pressure” campaign of the previous US administration. Iran achieved great success in Kirkuk in 2017 and in Albukamal in 2018, and then in southern Syria and by moving drones and assets to Syria, and US policy did not prevent it. Israel’s interwar war was supposed to reduce entrenchment and the movement of precision-guided munitions toward Hezbollah.

Iran acknowledges that Israel’s Defense Minister Benny Gantz has said that “Israel would never allow Hezbollah and its Iranian allies to target Israel’s military superiority,” Tasnim notes. “The Israeli Minister of War [Defense Minister Gantz] The comments came as a justification for the aggression of the anti-Syrian regime. The Zionists believe that a large part of the power of the Syrian resistance army comes from Hezbollah in Lebanon and that Hezbollah’s influence in Syria must be stopped. “

Iran says Gantz recently hosted an American delegation at a new Rafael Advanced Defense Systems facility at Shlomi in Israel.

“He is trying to increase his power and upset the regional balance,” the reports say. “The important point in the statements of the Israeli Minister of War is that his statements come more than a year after the signing of an agreement with the US Department of Defense. The Israeli agreement with the United States is based on a strategic plan to protect Israel’s military superiority in the Middle East for years to come. ” It was not clear exactly which deal he is referring to.

THE IRAN REPORT goes on to note that Israel’s Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General. Aviv Kohavi had warned about the “narrowing of the Israeli army’s superiority gap with Lebanon’s Hezbollah and the resistance in the Gaza Strip, noting that the IDF should take the initiative to regain its strength and increase that distance.” .

“This indicates that Hezbollah’s development capabilities and the axis of resistance have increased,” says Iran, and that Hezbollah is of great concern to Israel. It is a “great challenge for the [Israel] the political, military and intelligence institutions of the regime; the results of the recent conflicts that the Zionist regime has experienced in its surroundings, especially the Battle of the Sword of Jerusalem [May 2021 Gaza conflict], prove this fact. ”

Iran has concluded that Israel may be “unable to participate in a war or increase tensions to the point of exploding the situation in the region.” The report says Israel is trying to maintain its Qualitative Military Advantage (QME), but has always faced a threat since the 1950s and “will not be able to solve its geographic and demographic weakness.” The report indicates that despite advanced weapons, the concern will not change.

The report examines Israel’s strategy since Ben-Gurion’s time, as well as American policy, which the QME has sought to guarantee. “A practical example of this is that under former US presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, two 10-year agreements were signed between the United States and the Zionist regime, according to which the United States is obligated to enter into agreements of weapons. with other countries. The Middle East must respect the principle of not damaging Israel’s military superiority. ”

So what does Iran think will happen?

The report says that “the Islamic Republic of Iran, despite the siege and the numerous wars that were imposed on it, has succeeded in various areas of military and missile technology at an advanced level of capacity and development.” This has created a new “regional reality” that “challenges Israel’s military superiority and the dangerous scenarios for this.”

It states that “after the defeat of the war strategy between wars [campaign between the wars] – in light of information and evaluations from Israeli resistance institutions [i.e Hezbollah] capabilities – the Zionist regime has carried out extensive maneuvers in different periods.

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