McConnell wins, Biden loses, Trump fumes

Often in politics letting your opponents sink is the best strategy, somewhat Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnell Supreme Court Expansion to Protect Reproductive Rights On The Money: Biden’s Battle with Inflation Biden to Sign Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill Monday MORE (R-Ky.) You have learned; President BidenJoe BidenJudge Rejects Trump’s Request to Delay Release of Jan.6 Papers Amid Appeal On Money: Biden’s Battle with Inflation Night Defense and National Security: Russia Concerns Increase MORE I can’t stop, and Donald trumpDonald Trump Three men charged with fraud in PAC scheme of .5 million scams Judge rejects Trump’s request to delay release of Jan.6 documents amid appeal Prince Harry says he warned Dorsey from Twitter on the January 6 riots MORE finds impossible.

What’s missing from the 2021 election night celebrations and recriminations is that the Republican wins were set in motion by the DC insider everyone loves to hate (especially Trump): Senate Minority Leader McConnell. More than anything, the Democrats’ inability to pass a popular infrastructure bill before Election Day, and the open civil war within the party, doomed the Virginia Democrats and nearly sank the New Jersey Democrats as well.

In the spring, McConnell read the tea leaves and let the infrastructure bill pass the Senate. Infrastructure is still a popular government program, and I’m talking about brick and mortar construction, not the various Orwellian expanses. Elizabeth warrenElizabeth Warren Warren Pressures Biden on Pardons for Nonviolent Cannabis Convictions The Hill’s Morning Report – Presented By Facebook – The Republican Party Dealt The 2022 Coup, Looks At The Trump-Era Issues Biden Faces Highly Stakes With Progressives In The Fed choice MORE (D-Mass.) Use. In its August surveyYouGov found overall support for infrastructure from 51 to 19 percent, with more favors than opposing across all partisan and ideological groups. Even conservative Republicans favored the bricks and mortar bill 40 to 31 percent. While that support may have eroded lately among the Republican Party, it seems quite likely that this type of investment still maintains some Republican support and is likely to continue to do well among independents, who favored the bill by 30 points.

What McConnell launched was an epic fight within the Democratic Party, as progressives decided, in their childish wisdom, to hold the popular bill hostage to their multi-million dollar wish list. McConnell and the Republicans escaped the filibuster epithet and let the internal fractures of the Democrats take center stage.

Passing the bill after losing in Virginia wasn’t a huge win for Biden, more like political crumbs.

Biden can celebrate his “victory” all he wants, but the political carnage is likely to continue. Approval of $ 1.75 Trillion (or More) Trimmed “Rebuild Better” Is barely insured. The bill is only modestly less a surprise bag of policy and spending for the mass of interests that calls itself the Democratic Party.

The new bill has some popular components, but, as with its now-dead predecessor, it also contains many poisonous pills. The main problem is the demand to repeal the SALT tax deduction limit approved during the Trump administration. After giving in on one issue after another, Bernie sandersBernie SandersBudowsky: Biden’s War Plan to Win 2022 Midterm Elections Democrats Disagree with SALT Changes Progressives Call for Removal of Buffalo Mayor from DNC Post MORE it is not exactly in the mood Give wealthy New Yorkers a big tax cut.

The Democratic Civil War is the gift that continues to give McConnell.

Biden seems powerless, sidelined and waiting for Democratic leaders in Congress to try to forge a compromise. Such a commitment may not even occur, leaving bitterness to fester on all sides.

And, even if an agreement is reached, progressives have been completely humiliated. His tactic to take the infrastructure bill hostage failed spectacularly; Their candidates and problems were sent to the polls, and the Democratic establishment blames them for all the mess, and is preparing them to be blamed for the inevitable loss of the House majority.

As Democrats stir, Trump fumes to no avail

You’d think Trump would be one of the main beneficiaries of the Democrats’ daily debacle. One would be wrong.

The collapse in Biden’s approval and the dullness of the Democrats has not been accompanied by an increase in the polls for Trump. While Biden has sunk to a average approval handicap from 43 percent approve to 52 percent disapprove, and a more recent deficit in the Rassmussen and USA Today polls of 20 points, Trump has barely budged.

YouGov has Trump with an anemic approval of 39 percent (versus 55 percent disapproval). Biden has a 42 percent approval rating. Trump continues to perform poorly with independents, down 9 points. Trump’s overall figures have not changed from mid october and September. Morning consultation Trump is down 44 percent to 53 percent (Biden slightly higher, 45 to 51 percent).

The news is a little better in the ballot test with Biden. Trump leads Biden 44 to 40 percent in a recent Suffolk poll, 45 to 43 percent in Emerson and 38 to 36 percent in Redfield & Wilton (but tied at 42 among likely voters). But Trump got 47 percent in actual polls last year, which means he hasn’t even held onto his current vote, not to mention he beat anyone.

Not surprisingly, even Republicans prefer someone else as their nominee, with only 44 percent wanting Trump to do another career. That represents a drop of more than 40 points from his previous approval numbers among Republicans.

The worst thing for Trump in the long run is that he has little to say outside of raging against his enemies, attacking Biden and seizing whatever he can.

Trump’s claim that he put Glenn youngkinGlenn YoungkinMellman: Aftermath of the 2021 Election: How Big Was That Change? Biden faces high stakes with progressives in the Fed election, Sununu’s departure underscores the GOP’s uncertain path to winning a Senate majority MORE Passing the finish line is so comical that even the most dedicated MAGA has a hard time swallowing it. Youngkin didn’t just treat Trump like a 21S t Typhoid Mary century, but the Out of Virginia Polls showed Trump underwater in approval by 15 points, far worse than Biden. If anything, Trump was a drag on Youngkin’s performance.

But Trump will still be able to make life unpleasant for McConnell.

There is no chance that Trump will be left out of the intervening periods of 2022. Trump will undoubtedly try to push his favorites in the Republican primaries and will launch into races across the country. Kevin McCarthyKevin McCarthy There is still a chance for Democrats, if they don’t screw it up Republican House Candidate Charged With Abusing Stepdaughter In Texas The Hill’s Morning Report – Presented By Facebook – The Republican Party Dealt A Hit In 2022, Look At The Troubles Of The Trump era MORE (R-Calif.) And House Republicans are likely safe from Trump, as individual House elections are relatively small popes (and a Republican majority is practically a foregone conclusion).

But the Senate races and House control will be a very big, high-profile deal. No amount of pleading and flattery will stop Trump from stealing as much prominence as he can. He will be determined to “help” wherever he wants, regardless of whether that help is needed.

The Governor’s Recent Decision Chris sununuChris Sununu The Hill’s Morning Report – Presented by Facebook – Republican Party struck a blow in 2022, looks at the troubles of the Trump era Sununu’s departure underscores the GOP’s uncertain path to winning a Senate majority Sununu’s announcement gives Democrats one MORE lifeline refusing to run for a United States Senate could spell trouble for McConnell. Who can blame Sununu for declining? Not only would the race be very close, but Sununu would have to deal with the threat that Trump would parachute at any moment.

Both parties enter 2022 with more political problems than solutions.

The Republican prospects look much better as they are gaining momentum and not in the middle of a civil war. But they still have to deal with Trump dragging his ticket.

Keith Naughton, Ph.D., is a co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a regulatory and public affairs consulting firm. Naughton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. Follow him on Twitter @ KNaughton711.

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