Israel’s ability to attack Iran is vital for reasons other than what you know

In the last decade, Iran has been the source of 80% of Israel’s security problems.

In addition to the Lebanese terror group Hezbollah, which is under Iranian control, there are at least four other Iran-backed threats facing Israel.

The first is Iran’s attempt to establish a Hezbollah-like military force in Syria; the second is its attempts to carry out cyberattacks against Israeli targets; the third is its ability to attack the Jewish state with cruise missiles and armed drones that could come from Syria, Iraq and Yemen; and the fourth, and greatest, threat is the possibility of producing nuclear weapons very soon.

A decade ago, Israel achieved the ability to carry out an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. Former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu estimated at the time that an Israeli attack was possible and even necessary. Netanyahu assumed that if Iran attacked Israel in return, American forces would join the battle.

For various reasons, Israel eventually avoided launching such an attack, and the plan to attack Iran was deeply frozen in 2013. Furthermore, once world powers signed a nuclear deal with Iran in 2015, it became clear that an Israeli attack it is inconceivable. .

Fast forward to 2021: the nuclear deal is dead, and despite the two sides’ proposal to meet with the treaty, the gap between the United States and Iran appears insurmountable.

Iran insists on three things as conditions for a return to the 2015 agreement: unconditional lifting of all US sanctions; all the technology and uranium obtained so far by the Islamic Republic will remain in its possession; And third, even though the agreement has been frozen a few years ago, Iran wants that time to count as if they adhered to the obligations of the agreement (in other words, if it agreed to maintain certain restrictions for five years, those five have technically approved, even though the nuclear deal has been kept on ice).

US President Joe Biden and his administration tend to compromise on many issues, but in this case, they seem unwilling to submit to harsh demands from Iran. In my opinion, the chances that there will be no new agreement are greater than the chances that these disputes will be resolved.

This brings us to 2011 when the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Iran had been conducting experiments aimed at developing a nuclear weapon. But in 2021, that is not the only threat Iran is capable of producing, and it requires Israel to be prepared for at least two scenarios for an open and direct military conflict with Iran.

The first scenario is a direct attack on Israel with cruise missiles and armed drones operated by Iran or the militias under its rule. This type of attack was carried out two years ago against the Saudi oil infrastructure, which brought it to a standstill, although not for long. And while Israel has better defensive capabilities than Saudi Arabia, such an attack by Iran would likely require Israeli retaliation on Iranian soil.

The second scenario involves Israel attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities if the Iranian regime violates the nuclear deal, comes back to life, or simply starts accelerating towards a nuclear bomb.

The importance of the ability to take such actions is great to show the international community that the threat of an Israeli attack is real. As a result, they could try harder to reach an agreement that will keep Israel safe, or toughen sanctions against the Islamic Republic, or even prepare their own military options.

One of the reasons Iran allows itself to be so brazen towards the United States is the bitter fact that Washington has yet to show that it also has a credible military option.

The chances of a direct military confrontation between Israel and Iran, or even between Israel and Hezbollah, remain slim. But Israel has no choice but to improve its defense and attack capabilities, including its cyber units.

Paralysis of Iran gas stations earlier this week may indicate that Israel is not neglecting this vital area of ​​operations.

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